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U.S. Substation Automation and Integration Market Expenditures Valued at $2.5 Billion in 2021

When the estimated sales of 14 product/service topics covered in the newly released 2022-2024 edition of U.S. Substation Automation Market Overview Series are totaled, the estimated value of these product/services purchased by American utilities and industrial substation sites reached $2.493 Billion in 2021. Equipment types reported in the series include RTUs, PLCs, protective relays, multifunction meters and recorders (digital fault recorders, sequence of events recorders, power quality recorders) reclosers, inter-utility revenue meters, automation platforms, time synchronization clocks, voltage regulators, communications equipment and integration services.

The total of spending on substation automation-related equipment and smart devices, along with substation integration services is on the rebound from COVID-era induced spending cutbacks. Newton-Evans Research expects investments in substation modernization to continue to grow over the next 24-36 months at a moderate rate of growth. As new substations come onto the grid to support renewable energy sites, these will be highly automated.

While automation budgets will remain a substantial portion of all substation-related budgets, additional investment is necessary to shore up grid resiliency and cyber and physical security defenses at the substation level and so these expenditures will share in the overall investment plans. The need for substation physical expansions and upratings will also continue to cause substations investments to rise.

Newton-Evans Research also finds that there are three distinct tiers of substation integration service providers. These include substation automation specialist firms, SCADA industry participants having substation devices and which also provide integration services and T&D engineering service firms having substation integration expertise.

Individual substation market overview reports are priced at $195.00 and the entire 14-report series is available for $1,150.00. Each market overview report includes a segment description, estimated market size, market shares for key participants and the U.S. market outlook through 2024.

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A Look at the 2021 T&D Services Market in the United States

Over the past decade, the need for on-site T&D equipment servicing and parts replacement has grown, both for electric utilities and for commercial and industrial customers. While Newton-Evans has studied this portion of the T&D market in a cursory manner over the decades, we have not produced a multi-client study of this important segment of T&D-related spending. Even now, our definition of T&D services is not all-inclusive, as there is significant related expense incurred for equipment testing services (about $450 Million) and even more investment for replacement parts for ancillary equipment like structures, connectors, line tools, et al, accounting for multiple hundreds of millions of dollars.

While much of the cost of T&D equipment services and repairs is grouped as operating expense, we believe there may be some “replacement parts” costs that are likely classified as capital expenditures, especially costly parts for large power transformers and components for HV substation equipment.

The total value of expenditures for T&D equipment-related services and replacement parts in the United States is likely around the $4 Billion level as of 2021, and our estimate for global spending on T&D services is in the $18-20 billion range. These estimates exclude the costs of equipment unit replacement. Together, T&D equipment services, including repairs and replacement parts, accounted for perhaps $3.6 Billion to upwards of $4.2 Billion in 2021. See Figure 1.

Looking at T&D equipment field services, including repairs and maintenance services performed by third parties, our mid-point spending estimate is $1,750 Million. See Figure 2.

Similarly, the spending for replacement parts for HV, MV, LV equipment and for power and distribution transformers is estimated to be in the $2,200 Million range. See Figure 3.

The overall split of spending between utilities and the C&I community is about a four-to-one ratio in our view, with utilities accounting for the bulk of all HV, MV and transformer-related spending, but with the C&I group accounting for substantial portions of LV equipment services and replacement parts, some MV and transformer services, and occasional HV equipment servicing.

The largest portion of spending among the four categories studied for this article (HV, MV and LV equipment, and transformers of all sizes) is for MV equipment services and replacement parts. HV equipment services follow, then comes spending for power transformer services and LV equipment services.

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Outlook for Grid Modernization from IT and OT Perspectives: Recovering the Momentum Lost During COVID

Over the past two years, the pandemic has affected our lives, our businesses and the nation’s plans for infrastructure modernization, including the electric power grid. We had earlier (2020) forecasted rather robust growth in spending on IT, OT and smart grid initiatives in a grid modernization report prepared for a client organization.

During the first year of the pandemic, Newton-Evans conducted a small sample study (25 large and mid-size utilities) of the impact of COVID on electric power transmission and distribution capital investment projects.

Observations from that 2020 study indicated capital investment plans for some utilities had been scaled back by as much as 50% for 2020 and 2021. Other respondents reported that capital projects had been deferred for 12, 24 or even 36 months. A few utilities held fast to their pre-pandemic investment plans as long as they could do so.

In Figure 1, note our belief that total 2021 expenditures for the combination of IT, OT and smart grid projects likely reached about $14.2 Billion. In 2020, Newton-Evans had estimated that 2021 would likely see about $16.1 Billion in these combined expenditures, but by that year, the pandemic had firmly taken hold, restricting the availability of utility workforce personnel. COVID also impacted the manufacturing of some electrical equipment and provision of consulting and engineering services related to IT, OT and grid modernization projects.


Figure 1.
NOTE: Total IT + OT + SG Expenditures = $14.25 Billion
($5.55 Billion for IT + $5.30 Billion for OT + $3.4 Billion for “pure” Smart Grid)
$14.25 B = about 4.75% of electric utility operating revenue or 3.6% of total electricity sales.
IT spending alone likely less than 2% of operating revenue.

Now, the question arises – What is included in “pure” smart grid investment? Here, we include smart grid devices and equipment that acquire and transmit data and other signals to monitor and/or control utility field operations outside of the substation fence. For the most part, these are 21st century developments or generational improvements over earlier “legacy” devices. Pole top RTUs, distribution line fault indicators and feeder monitors, multiple types of controllers (for capacitor banks, automatic circuit reclosers, voltage regulators, line mounted monitoring devices et al) and automated switches and protective devices).

The related advanced communications infrastructure including built-out portions of the utility wide-area networks, local area networks and supporting infrastructure for automatic metering equipment are also placed in the “pure” smart grid bucket. IT system components related to smart grid are typified by meter data management systems, the customer services links to outage management systems, and geographic information systems to name a few. Operations side systems and applications would include advanced distribution management systems which collect and aggregate the thousands of field data points now configured with intelligent electronic field devices mentioned earlier that assist in more effective operation of the distribution grid.

By the third quarter of 2021, some recovery in capital spending for transmission and distribution was underway, based on recent discussions with a variety of industry sources. Even now, in the first quarter of 2022, we are still in a cautionary progression, given the lingering concerns over, and the effects of the OMICRON variant on the utility labor force and on delays in equipment availability in some situations. By 2023, I anticipate combined investment in IT, OT and grid modernization projects as shown in Figure 3 below will increase to more than $16.6 Billion. When compared with a pre-pandemic outlook calling for about $19.2 Billion in such investment in the coming year this leaves a shortfall of $2.6 Billion.

Importantly, when utilities have been compared with other industries related to IT spending, at first glance the industry appears to invest relatively less of its revenues in IT and OT. However, we have found that even in this pandemic area, with total U.S. electric power revenues approaching $400 Billion, the investment in combined IT and OT, plus related portions of grid modernization technology projects (exclusive of the cost of grid modernization equipment), the level of capital spending for grid modernization is closer to the 3.6% – 4.0% investment level. IT spending alone hovers around 1.5%-1.9% of operating revenues. Adding in the industry’s investment in OT and in key technology aspects of smart grid projects, the relative investment in overall information technology in total climbs to a much more reasonable level. See Figure 2.


Figure 2.
Two key assumptions about this outlook:
1. COVID will be endemic, not pandemic, by 3Q 2022.
2. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act actually begins funding significant portions of the $72.3 Billion allocated for energy and electric power infrastructure renewal by mid-year 2022.

The impact of COVID on electric power industry investment during 2020 and 2021 and into 2022 has taken its toll. The question facing the industry and the nation is whether or not this estimated $16.5 Billion shortfall in grid modernization investment (as postponed or deferred from initial estimates) can be made up during the remaining years of this decade? My belief is that the investment gap will be narrowing over the next 36 months, as shown in Figure 3 below, and the pre- and post-pandemic trendlines will indeed converge in the latter years of the 2020’s. Closing the investment gap will especially be likely – and may occur earlier than anticipated with help from DOE funding. Much will depend on federal funds flows from the recently enacted Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act – legislation that will enable additional billions of dollars to be provided for grid modernization programs and related energy projects. At least several billion dollars of the $72 billion or so earmarked for electric power modernization will be applied to IT, OT and “pure” smart grid projects, although the majority of the total budget is earmarked for transmission grid expansion, overall grid hardening and integration of renewable energy sources.

I believe that this forthcoming federal investment in the nation’s electric power grid – coupled with the investments of the nation’s utilities, must include funding for research and development of advanced technical solutions for ever higher levels of cybersecurity and grid resilience.

As of February 2022, the nation’s electric utilities are re-starting or initiating a number of grid modernization projects and programs, deferred in part over the past 24 months.  This activity will help boost IT, OT and smart grid device/equipment expenditures this year and into 2023. Figure 4 illustrates the near-term growth estimate we have made for the IT, OT and smart grid field components of capital investment as the effects of the COVID pandemic begin to wane in the first quarter of 2022.

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Sizing the Market for Electric Power Grid Modernization In an Era of Pandemic

According to the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration, annual spending on electricity distribution systems by major U.S. utilities continued to increase year-over-year through 2019, with major utilities spending some $57.4 billion on electric distribution in that last pre-pandemic year. More than half of utility distribution spending in 2019 went toward capital investment ($31.4 billion) as utilities worked to replace, upgrade, and extend existing infrastructure. Another $14.6 billion was invested in operations and maintenance (O&M), and $11.5 billion was appropriated for customer expenses, which included advertising, billing, and customer service.

In 2019, much of the $31.4 billion distribution system capital investment (40%) was spent on power lines, both underground (23% of investment) and overhead (17% of investment). Distribution lines are added or expanded to accommodate new neighborhood development or higher electricity flows as sales increase.1
Keep in mind that when spending by municipal electric utilities and electric cooperatives are added to the EIA totals, the amounts reported by EIA actually would increase by about 25-30%, at least in our estimation.  The bulk of this additional non-IOU spending was for distribution expenditures.

We have increased these amounts for 2020 and 2021, if only to account for inflationary pressures on prices of electrical equipment and systems. Thus, our view is that, in 2021, about $60 Billion was spent in total, on electric power distribution activities in the United States. Of this amount, $33 Billion was estimated for capital investment, and about $20 Billion of the total went for distribution equipment and systems.


Fig. 1

Newton-Evans’ recent year studies of U.S. combined utility and industrial/commercial spending for dozens of specific T&D products, equipment types and systems suggest about $22 Billion was invested in about 70 specific T&D equipment types in 2021.2 Note that this estimate includes spending for both transmission and distribution. In fact, the total expenditures for T&D procurements likely exceeded 100 billion dollars. See Figure 2.


Fig. 2

This $22 Billion shown in the above chart excludes additional billions of dollars invested in power lines, underground cables, electric power poles, meters and ancillary equipment as well as customer-related spending, certain substation construction and O&M services.

One recent Newton-Evans’ study of capital investment changes brought on by the COVID pandemic, resulted in an expected drop in CAPEX from 2019 to 2020, followed by stabilization and a moderate increase in spending for some areas in 2021. Some respondents cited this as a “deferral” of investments rather than a cancellation of investments at the time of the study.3 Nonetheless, total capital investment by U.S. electric utilities during the 2020 and 2021 years likely centered around the $130 Billion mark.4

If the nation (and the entire world) can move on from the ongoing pandemic era, to an endemic period, grid modernization investment may recover some of the momentum lost or deferred from the past 24 months. As well, the significance of the passage of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act in November, 2021, cannot be overstated. More than $60 Billion dollars of funding under this new act has been allocated to the energy sector, most of that amount earmarked for modernization of the electric grid.

Sources:
1. U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration
2. Newton-Evans’ Market Overview Series on various T&D Topics
3. Newton-Evans Research Study of Capital Investment among U.S. Utilities in Midst of Pandemic Conditions (1-2 Quarters, 2020)
4. Newton-Evans Calculations of 1.28 x EEI/EIA estimate of $107 B. Newton-Evans’ estimate very similar to estimate prepared by Statista, which itself was sourced in part from S&P Global Market data.

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40% off “The World Market for Substation Automation and Integration Programs in Electric Utilities: 2017-2020.”

In 2017 Newton-Evans completed its eleventh worldwide study of the market for substation automation and integration systems in electric utilities. This 4-volume report series measures current market sizes for several sub-categories of equipment and services in North America and by World Regions. It also estimates and forecasts demand for substation automation equipment through year-end 2020, and profiles utility requirements as well as broader product and market requirements.
Continue reading 40% off “The World Market for Substation Automation and Integration Programs in Electric Utilities: 2017-2020.”

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40% off “The World Market Study of SCADA, EMS, DMS and OMS in Electric Utilities: 2017-2019”

In 2017, Newton-Evans published its 14th survey-based study of the market for electric power control systems (EMS, SCADA, DMS and OMS). Thirty-two of the 68 North American utilities indicated they are planning an upgrade to their existing SCADA system by year-end 2019.

“Do you plan to add any new/replacement or upgraded/retrofitted systems by 2019?” 
Continue reading 40% off “The World Market Study of SCADA, EMS, DMS and OMS in Electric Utilities: 2017-2019”

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Market for “Smart” RTUs Linked to Increase in Sensor Data

According to Schneider Electric, one of the world’s leading RTU manufacturers, Smart RTUs “combine the monitoring and communication capabilities of a remote terminal unit (RTU) with the processing and data-logging power of a programmable logic controller (PLC).” Two recent Newton-Evans studies take a look at Smart RTUs both inside the substation and outside in the field.

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Electric Utilities Will Require More 3rd Party Assistance for Cybersecurity in the Next 3 Years

The recently completed Newton-Evans study of the Global Market for Protective Relays shows that out of 97 electric utilities surveyed around the world, 20% claim they currently require outside assistance for cyber security audits of their relay systems, and an additional 42% claim they will need third party assistance by 2022.

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Slight increase in the use of PMUs among Electric Utilities according to survey

According to a survey of 97 electric utility officials in 30 countries, the use of Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) may be on the rise. The 2019 Newton-Evans study of protective relay usage, plans and trends found that 44% of International utilities and 31% of North American utilities surveyed indicated use of PMUs; a 3% increase over the previous study’s findings. See the comparison of findings in Figs. A and B below.

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One-Third of Electric Utilities Surveyed Indicate Over Half of Relays Have Been In Service for >15 Years

Roughly one-third of electric power T&D utility officials indicated in a survey that more than half of protective relays on their systems have been in service for more than 15 years. This is not such a long lifespan for EM relays, which can last 50 years or more, but for programmable, microprocessor relays the average lifespan is usually more in the ballpark of 20-25 years.

Newton-Evans Research Company has published findings from 97 surveyed electric power utility officials, relay manufacturers, suppliers and consultants. Here are a few observations on aging relays and testing intervals for microprocessor relays:
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69% of Electric Utilities Surveyed Separate OT Networks From IT Business Networks

A recent Newton-Evans survey of 55 North American electric utilities finds that companies are even more hesitant than they were in 2016 to combine networks for operational technology with networks used for IT business processes.

Survey participants were asked, “Does your company manage operational technology (OT) protection, control, and automation Ethernet networks separate from your information technology (IT) business process Ethernet networks?” This question is one of several that were asked previously on a 2016 survey of the protective relay marketplace.

In 2019, 69% percent of North American utilities responded that they manage OT networks separately from IT business process Ethernet networks. In 2016, 55% said they manage the networks separately.

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35% of Utilities Surveyed Said More Than Half Of Relays Are Over 15 Years in Service

Newton Evans Research Company has recently completed Volume 1 (the North American Market) of the Worldwide Study of the Protective Relay Marketplace: 2019-2022, a four volume market report. Here are a few observations gleaned from the survey:

Survey respondents were asked, “Approximately what % of your relays have been in service for more than 15 years? (Best guess estimate)”

On average, 44% of relays in the utilities surveyed have been in service for more than 15 years. The average percent of relays older than 15 years among Canadian utilities surveyed was 61%; the average among U.S. Cooperatives was 25%.
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94% of North American Electric Utilities Surveyed Use DNP3 for SCADA

Newton Evans Research Company is currently surveying for the upcoming Worldwide Study of the Protective Relay Marketplace: 2019-2022, a four volume market report. Participants in this market study include utility engineers and managers from investor-owned utilities, municipal and provincial utilities, cooperative utilities within the United States and Canada, together with national power systems throughout the world. This year’s study also includes separate surveys of P&C consultants and relay manufacturers.

Interim findings from the survey of North American electric utilities validate earlier Newton Evans observations that DNP3 is more commonly used for SCADA but less so for Substation Automation, controlling actions issued externally to relays, and communications-assisted protection. Almost all North American utilities surveyed indicated the use of DNP3 for SCADA, while 60% said they use it for substation automation. Only 38% indicated the use of DNP3 for communications-assisted protection. Early tabulations have found some increase in deployments of IEC 61850.
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The U.S. Submersible Medium Voltage Switchgear Market

In an electric power system, submersible switchgear is the special combination of electrical disconnect switches, fuses or circuit breakers used to control, protect and isolate electrical equipment all enclosed in a “vault-like” casing to prevent flooding damage. Submersible switchgear is used both to de-energize equipment to allow work to be done and to clear faults downstream. This type of equipment is important because it operates in the same way as other forms of switchgear and is directly linked to the reliability of the electricity supply.

A variety of interrupting devices can be used with vaulted submersible switches including fuses, air circuit breaker, oil circuit breaker, vacuum circuit breaker or gas (SF6) circuit breaker.

Newton-Evans has estimated the 2017 U.S. market for submersible switchgear to have been about $140-$155 Million – and growing at about 5% per year, a rate somewhat higher than other MV market segments for electric power infrastructure equipment.
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Global Study Finds Continuing Moderate Growth in Protective Relay Market with Commitment to Improving Protection Coordination and Grid Security Practices

In 2016, Newton-Evans Research Company completed a six-month research study and survey of protective relay usage patterns in the world community of electric power utilities. Findings from 114 large and mid-size utilities in 28 countries pointed to some newer trends in adoption and use of protection and control technology.

Among the key findings reported in the 2016 four-volume study were these:

  • There was a receptive market for incorporating advanced technological capabilities.
  • The role of synchrophasors and teleprotection continued to expand; providing better situational awareness and visualization for control system operators.
  • Most new and retrofit relay units being purchased were digital relays, but in some of the protection applications studied, such as motor protection and
  • large generator applications, and in installations where electrical interference is strong, electro-mechanical and older solid state relays continued to have a niche market position.

Continue reading Global Study Finds Continuing Moderate Growth in Protective Relay Market with Commitment to Improving Protection Coordination and Grid Security Practices

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Protective Relays and IT/OT Convergence: What Will Be Trending in 2019?

In 2016, Newton-Evans Research Company conducted a six-month research study of protective relay usage patterns in the world community of electric power utilities. Findings from 114 large and mid-size utilities in 28 countries pointed to some newer trends in adoption and use of protection and control technology. Newton-Evans Research Company plans to update this market study in January of 2019: Worldwide Study of the Protective Relay Marketplace: 2019-2022.

Here are some findings from the survey that was conducted in 2016, when we asked utilities how they collect IT information from OT networks:

Where do you provide demarcation between the physical IT and OT networks in order to safely collect IT information from the OT networks? (Check all that apply)
NORTH AMERICA: In 2016, just over half of North American respondents said the demarcation between physical IT and OT networks is at the control center, and 47% said demarcation is in the substation. Seven respondents said demarcation between the two networks is provided at both the control center and in the substation.

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Newton-Evans Study Finds Market for Relay-Centric Devices and Controls Expanding with Emergence and Growth of Newer Industry Segments

In 2016, Newton-Evans Research Company conducted a six-month research study of protective relay usage patterns in the world community of electric power utilities. Findings from 114 large and mid-size utilities in 28 countries pointed to some newer trends in adoption and use of protection and control technology.

Importance of Purchasing “Known” Relays: Sixty-five percent of the North American respondents strongly agreed with the statement, “It is important that we purchase known relays (a proven product with which we have had prior experience).” Overall, 97% of North American respondents strongly agreed (65%) or agreed (32%). Three people were neutral about this statement. None of the respondents expressed any level of disagreement. Eighty-two percent of North American utilities serving more than 500,000 electricity end users strongly agreed with this statement.

Fifty-three percent of international respondents strongly agreed with this statement. Forty-one percent agreed only somewhat. One person disagreed and one person was neutral about this statement.

Agree or Disagree: “It is important that we purchase known relays (a proven product with which we have had prior experience.)”

Continue reading Newton-Evans Study Finds Market for Relay-Centric Devices and Controls Expanding with Emergence and Growth of Newer Industry Segments

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Worldwide Study of the Protective Relay Marketplace in Electric Utilities: 2019-2022

Beginning early in January, Newton-Evans Research Company will again be gathering survey-based data for its newest four-volume market study, the Worldwide Study of the Protective Relay Marketplace: 2019-2022, planned for publication late 1st quarter 2019. Some of the questions this study will answer include: 1) Will IEC 61850-based protective relay products gain a higher market share among North American utilities? 2) Is there a change coming in protective relay market leadership? 3) With growing utility emphasis on DA, the integration of renewables, storage devices and demand-side management tools, will there be a need for additional protective relays in MV substations and embedded in a new generation of distributed field equipment?

The 2019 study will measure current market sizes and will include market projections on a world region basis for the next few years. The extensive research program will define the product and market requirements which suppliers must meet in order to successfully participate in one or more of these diverse world market regions.

Newton-Evans Research Company estimates from our earlier 2016 relay market study indicate that the North American protective relay market then stood at $660 million for the combined utility and industrial market segments. It will be important for the P&C community to learn how changes in the world market and grid modernization since 2016 will affect the outlook for 2019-2022.

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North America Factory Shipments of Protective Relays Could Top $700 MUSD in 2018

A four-volume Newton-Evans study conducted in 2016 of the worldwide protective relay marketplace showed a steady increase in factory shipments of protective relays between 1996-2016. If this pattern continues, relay shipments could exceed $700 million by the end of this year.

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Control Systems, Protective Relaying and Substation Automation Report Series Year-End Discount

Research findings from recently completed Newton-Evans studies see an upswing in cyber security investments worldwide, while substantial differences for communications protocols and methods are also evident. Order all 3 of Newton-Evans Research Company’s flagship studies on electric power control systems, substation automation and protective relays and save $9,800 off the initial retail price! Here is what is included:

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