Author: Chuck

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Preview our Research Topics – Plans for 2011

***************  2011 Plans Announced  ***************

We have outlined an aggressive research agenda for the coming year, based on fourth quarter 2010 discussions with our clients and industry contacts:   Of course, we will also concurrently be conducting multiple proprietary studies for clients old and new on many electric power infrastructure and automation topics. 

The Newton-Evans’ multi-client study topics and report prices for the coming year include:

First Quarter:  2011 Annual Outlook for CAPEX and OPEX in the World’s Electric Utilities.  (Fourth Edition) (Price:  $495.00)

Second Quarter:  The Worldwide Smart Grid Market in 2011: A Reality Check and Five Year Outlook Through 2015: Four Volumes: (Price:  $3,750.00)

Third Quarter:  Global Study of Data Communications Usage Patterns and Plans in the Electric Power Industry:  Four Volumes (Price: $4,500.00)

 Fourth Quarter:  8th Edition of The Worldwide Study of the Protective Relay Marketplace in Electric Utilities: 2011-2013: Four Volumes (Price: $5,750.00)

 Other Titles Likely (as resource availability permits): 

 IEC 61850 in North America….Gaining Traction?

 Global Outlook for Synchrophasor Programs: 2011-2015

Demand Response:  North American Market Outlook: 2011-2015

T&D Equipment Markets in North America: 2010-2015

*******  Cautious Optimism remains the byword to the outlook for 2011-2012!

See Chuck’s Composite viewpoints at http://www.newton-evans.com/?page_id=799

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“2010 U.S. Smart Grid Vendor Ecosystem” The new DOE Report Substantiates Newton-Evans’ Findings and Insights

Newton-Evans Research studies and findings have figured prominently in domestic U.S. energy policy reporting and analysis over the past decade and longer. This time, the U.S. Department of Energy’s latest smart grid publication titled 2010 U.S. Smart Grid Vendor Ecosystem authored by the San Francisco-based firm The Cleantech Group LLC includes a substantial amount of Newton-Evans’ recent research findings.

More than a dozen Newton-Evans charts depicting the firm’s recent findings on substation automation, distribution automation, energy management, SCADA systems, communications and CAPEX topics form an integral part of this newly released 91 page report on the companies and market dynamics shaping the current U.S. smart grid landscape.

In the acknowledgments (page 18) of the Cleantech report the authors state:

“We would like to thank Chuck Newton, from Newton-Evans Research, whose work is referenced in numerous sections of this report for his contributions and insights into the market particularly around distribution and substation automation….”

The new DOE report can be downloaded here: http://www.energy.gov/media/Smart-Grid-Vendor.pdf

Over the past 18 months, Newton-Evans reports have figured prominently in the U.S. government’s intensive investigation into the potential of the development of the smart grid. Our company’s findings have been used or referenced in congressional hearings and reports as well as serving as the basis for the recent report produced by Idaho National Labs titled: National SCADA Testbed Substation Automation Evaluation Report.

This substation automation evaluation used research conducted by Newton-Evans Research Company for some of its observations and results. The Newton-Evans Report aided in the determination of what is the state of substation automation in North American electric utilities. Idaho National Laboratory cyber security experts aided in the determination of what cyber vulnerabilities may pose a threat to electrical substations. This report includes cyber vulnerabilities as well as recommended mitigations. It also describes specific cyber issues found in typical substation automation configurations within the electric utility industry. National SCADA Testbed Substation Automation Evaluation Report, released in October 2009, can be downloaded here: http://www.inl.gov/technicalpublications/Documents/4374057.pdf

An additional 2009 report from INL entitled Study of Security Attributes of Smart Grid Systems – Current Cyber Security Issues provides good coverage of key cyber security issues confronting smart grid systems and components. Reference to Newton-Evans’ collaboration with INL on substation automation cyber security research is noted in this report. The study can be downloaded here: http://www.inl.gov/scada/publications/d/securing_the_smart_grid_current_issues.pdf 

On the international scene, Newton-Evans has recently conducted worldwide surveys of power utility engineering managers that have proven useful in providing guidance for CIGRE working groups on topics including wireless (Wi-Fi) Protected Access for Substation Protection and Control (WG B5.22)and for The Impact of Implementing Security Requirements for IEC 61850 (WG B5.38).

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Measuring the Impact of GE Energy’s Acquisition of SNC Lavalin ECS Business Unit

August 2, 2010. Well, it was inevitable that GE would make a play for a larger share of the global EMS/SCADA/DMS market and today the company announced the acquisition of the Montreal-based Energy Control Systems business unit of SNC Lavalin. With this acquisition, Newton-Evans believes GE Energy now ranks fourth in the world in terms of numbers of significant energy management, large SCADA and large distribution management systems. Note that the “GENe” name of the ECS’ offerings might just be an added plus!

A few quick facts about the impact of this acquisition:

Continue reading Measuring the Impact of GE Energy’s Acquisition of SNC Lavalin ECS Business Unit

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January-June 2010 Research Activities: Status Report to Our Clients and Readers

EMS, SCADA, DMS Study. The first volume (North America) of this expansive four-volume study will be released in July. We have already surpassed the levels of participation obtained in the past two studies, with more than 100 mid-size to TOP 10 electric power utilities providing their control systems usage patterns and plans. Meanwhile, the international research effort is coming along well, with utilities from more than 20 countries participating within the first two weeks of commencing this portion of the study. The Supplier Profiles volume is being updated with fresh information from all leading integrators of T&D control systems around the world.

Substation Automation Study. This study is revving up to get underway with client inputs and reviews of the survey questions. The new survey will be fielded worldwide in late September through early November. We again hope to obtain participation from about one half of significant world electric power utilities.

Global Electric Utility CAPEX Report: Completed in the first quarter of 2010, this report has been quoted in business publications and used in briefings by some of the very large management consulting firms around the world. The formal title is Global CAPEX and O&M Expenditure Outlook for Electric Power Transmission and Distribution Investments: 2010-2011 – Funding Outlook for Smart Grid Development.

Continue reading January-June 2010 Research Activities: Status Report to Our Clients and Readers

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Chuck’s Composite (July 2010)

Very Large Power Transformer Industry: Well, wouldn’t you know it, now that EFACEC has opened the first major new transformer plant in the U.S. in decades, there is more to come. First, the leading India-based transformer manufacturer, Crompton-Greaves, has just opened a new large transformer facility in Missouri. Now word is that Hyundai will construct a large power transformer plant in Alabama. Interestingly as well, the GE PROLEC large power transformer business, having recently completed a significant plant expansion in its Monterrey, Mexico facility, has now surpassed the billion dollar level of business in its own right, based on our estimates.

All in all, these are very interesting and important developments that may help drive decisions among North American utility planning staffs to get moving with procurements for a new generation of “smarter” large power transformers to replace the aging fleet of some 50,000 large power transformers now more than 25 years old, and with a good percentage approaching 40 years of service.

Possible Acquisitions: Rumors have reached Newton-Evans about potential acquisition discussions between two giants (one a mega-giant) in the North American electric power T&D equipment and grid automation business. Could be a lot of industry excitement if this actually develops beyond the “whispers” heard recently.

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Preliminary Findings from Mid-2010 Study of Energy Management Systems, SCADA and DMS/DA Systems

June 21, 2010 update. This interim client summary is based on tabulations of 65 survey completions from very large, large and mid-size North American utilities, together accounting for about 20% of served end-users. Bold print indicates a change from the preliminary findings released on June 14. These observations on some of the key topics covered in this year’s study (the 12th Newton-Evans Research world study of EMS, SCADA and DMS/DA over the past quarter century) will continue to be updated for clients as our sample size increases dramatically. The current sample represents about 20% of North American end users of electricity. The next update will feature observations and findings from more leading investor-owned utilities and will represent about 25% of served North American end users.

Smart Grid Initiatives – Funding

  • Most utilities plan to proceed with self-funded approaches to smart grid initiatives. Nearly 80% indicated that they would be making some effort over the next 24-36 months on funding smart grid initiatives.

Control Systems Upgrades and Replacements

  • Several upgrades and system replacements are being planned for EMS (23%) and for SCADA (29%) during the 2010-2012 periods.

Continue reading Preliminary Findings from Mid-2010 Study of Energy Management Systems, SCADA and DMS/DA Systems

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ABB and the Ventyx Acquisition – Why Now, What Next?

By Charles W. Newton, Newton-Evans Research Company, Inc.

(Updated May 7)

The May 2010 announcement of the ABB acquisition of Atlanta-based Ventyx is likely to serve as a wake-up call to the major competitors of ABB in the electric power T&D and operational smart grid market, primarily the likes of Areva T&D, GE and Siemens. This week’s acquisition puts ABB squarely in the heart of “smart grid” activities – both from an operational perspective, where it has been a global market co-leader, and now set to gain a significant market position in the burgeoning enterprise utility “smart grid” software market, a perspective beyond that of any direct competitor.

ABB will now be in a better position for more smart grid-related opportunities than any other of the IT-centric “smart grid” players, none of whom can compete directly in the operational side of “smart grid” with smart field equipment offerings. Overall, this eases the “shopping/procurement” burdens of utilities. The effect of ABB’s acquisition of perhaps the best available and largest independent energy industry applications software provider positions ABB for a larger role in the hundred-billion dollar-plus market for operational equipment and for energy enterprise software.

Continue reading ABB and the Ventyx Acquisition – Why Now, What Next?

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Newton-Evans Research Announces New Report on U.S. Smart Grid Projects with Cumulative Values of $13.4 Billion.

More than 150 U.S. smart grid projects have been identified, summarized and categorized by Newton-Evans Research staff in this April, 2010 compilation of smart grid project summaries. The 60-page report contains narrative summaries of each of the projects, and includes a sortable EXCEL spreadsheet of the identified projects. Utility funded projects and projects that have received DoE stimulus funding are included in the report. Total values of the projects uncovered in this report stand at $13.4 billion.

This report has been prepared by the Newton-Evans Research Company to serve as a quick reference guide to the U.S. electric power utility smart grid activities planned and in progress as of the second quarter of 2010. Each of more than 150 projects have been included here, complete with a utility listing, followed by a brief summary of the smart grid program. Where possible, the total budgeted dollar amount for each specific project has been included, and any stimulus funding also noted. These projects have been categorized by our research team into one or more of 11 smart grid-related project categories (as defined by the GRIDWISE Alliance) on a “best-fit” basis.

The report includes a number of utility self-funded smart grid projects as well as those programs receiving ARRA stimulus funding grants from the U.S. Department of Energy.

In addition to the narrative report summaries for each project, the e-report includes an EXCEL spreadsheet of project listings, enabling the interested reader to sort on a variety of categories (i.e. high-to-low funding; project classification, etc.)

The SMART GRID PROJECTS  2010 report, priced at $195.00,  is available for immediate download on our reports page.

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New Distribution Automation Study Includes Detailed “Sub-Segment” Level Market Information.

The newest DA report (March 2010) from Newton-Evans Research includes summary level tables of market data for a total of 21 related market categories of equipment, software and services. The 21 tables are grouped under one of four major DA market segmentation categories including feeder primary components; feeder electronics; feeder automation software and services; and distribution management activities.

Each table includes a summary of key trends, market size estimates and key players active in the North American market. The 21 categories for which the summaries have been prepared include: reclosers, sectionalizers, voltage regulator transformers, capacitor banks, small power (MV) transformers and distribution transformers. Summary tables for electronic recloser controls, voltage regulators, capacitor bank controllers, fault indicators, pole-top and pad-mount RTUs, and DA communications are included.

Rounding out the market data summaries are these: DA software, related engineering services, SCADA, OMS, Network analysis, substation transformer load management, voltage control systems, condition monitoring and fault location.

When all components of distributon automation are evaluated together, the DA-related equipment and services market is now above $750 million in the U.S. and Canada, and more than two billion dollars globally. Much more information is provided in the Newton-Evans study entitled “Distribution Automation: Trends, Developments and Retrospectives 2007-2018.” (see the report order steps here http://www.newton-evans.com/?page_id=7 for purchase details).

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Utility CAPEX Report Published from the January 2010 Newton-Evans Study of Electric Power T&D Investment

Tracking Study Finds Increased 2010 CAPEX and O&M Budgets for Smart Grid-Related Automation and Transmission Categories

February 25, 2010 —Ellicott City, Maryland. The Newton-Evans Research Company today announced the publication of its third study in the multi-year tracking research program looking into electric power utility CAPEX budgets related to smart grid investments and infrastructure spending plans.
Findings from the January 2010 Newton-Evans global tracking study of electric power transmission and distribution investment are somewhat positive, compared with the two earlier tracking studies conducted in 2008 and 2009. Each of five “smart grid” component areas, plus transmission and distribution infrastructure development, has been reported by utilities located in more than 25 countries to more likely be either “increased” or “unchanged” rather than “decreased” from June of last year. The highest percentages of officials reporting increases were in the areas of protection and control, and transmission infrastructure CAPEX budgets. Continue reading Utility CAPEX Report Published from the January 2010 Newton-Evans Study of Electric Power T&D Investment

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Off to a Fast Start: Newton-Evans tackles 2010’s initial array of assignments

With a warm welcome to our newest report clients from China, United Arab Emirates, Czech Republic, and Japan, along with assignments from several of our long-term North American and European clients, Newton-Evans staff is keeping up with the workload despite two record blizzards affecting day-to-day life and work in the mid-Atlantic region of the U.S. over the past week.

Our client-focused research activities over the first six weeks of 2010 have included topics ranging from distribution automation, to DMS, an update on demand response, plans for substation automation, a review of apparatus monitoring and diagnostics, to a synopsis of legacy electric utility application software market size and shares.  In addition, the company is focused on two multi-client studies:  First, the newest round of CAPEX studies, with participation and assistance now obtained from utility officials in more than 25 countries. Secondly, a new study of transmission planning in the USA and Canada will soon be available.

Some interesting electric power marketplace facts uncovered during the early weeks of 2010 include:

  • Size of the global installed base of large power transformers
  • Number of large power plants in countries around the world – to accompany our country-specific substation counts
  • Extent of Industrial power delivery micro-grids
  • Extent of intelligent electronic devices being deployed for distribution network automation.

Continue reading Off to a Fast Start: Newton-Evans tackles 2010’s initial array of assignments

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Areva T&D Apparently To Remain in French Hands After All

After months of internal debate and consideration of proposals from GE and Toshiba, Areva’s top tier of executives have decided to keep the $7 billion-plus T&D business under French control. AREVA’s Supervisory Board met on November 30, 2009 to examine the bids. After review, the Supervisory Board asked the Executive Board to begin exclusive negotiations with Alstom/Schneider.

The consortium offered 2.29 billion Euros in equity value, i.e. 4.09 billion Euros in enterprise value. The bid does not include any requirement for a seller’s warranty but includes a buyer’s commitment to maintain all European sites for a 3-year period.

To ensure that all AREVA T&D team members are integrated properly, Alstom/Schneider have also agreed to offer to all European employees a similar position in the same geographic area, at an equivalent qualification level and without loss of compensation or seniority.

Finally, unless the economic environment deteriorates significantly, the buyers made a commitment not to implement any layoff program except for voluntary terminations. There are still many unresolved issues including these: Continue reading Areva T&D Apparently To Remain in French Hands After All

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Mid-2009 Global Protective Relay Market Study Completed – Four Volume Study Released

Market Indications Point to Lower CAPEX Investment and Some Project Deferrals for Protection and Control Activities in mid-2009, Rebounding by mid-2010

June 29, 2009 Ellicott City, Maryland. Newton-Evans Research Company has completed a four-month research study and survey of protective relay usage patterns in the global electric power business. Findings from more than 130 utilities located in more than 40 countries, point to a number of changes in buying patterns and usage trends since the company’s last topical study was completed in late 2006.

The percentage of digital relays in the mix of all protective relays used by utilities continues to increase. More than 50% of all generator and transmission line relays installed in the surveyed North American utilities are now digital units. The vast majority of new and retrofit units being purchased in North America and around the world are also digital relays, but in some of the protection applications studied, such as motor protection and large generator applications, electromechanical and solid state relays continue to have a niche market position.
Additional highlights from the mid-2009 study include the following:

  • Worldwide sales of medium voltage and high voltage applications of protective relays currently exceed $1.5 billion. Electric utilities, industrial companies and OEM manufacturers purchase and integrate these devices into grid operations, motor controls and as components of transmission and distribution equipment such as power transformers and switchgear.
  • At least five protective relay manufacturers each ship more than $150 million worth of protective relays each year. These firms include ABB, Areva T&D, GE Multilin, SEL Inc. and Siemens Energy. Several additional suppliers have annual shipments of from $25 million to $150 million.
  • Electric utilities accounted for about $575-675 million worth of direct purchases of protective relays in 2008. Industrial purchases accounted for at least $350-425 million.
  • Electro-Mechanical units continue to account for more than $100 million on a global scale.
  • The protection and control market is now being impacted by the global recession, but is expected to rebound by mid-2010, in the views of hundreds of survey respondents to both this study and a separate CAPEX study undertaken by Newton-Evans in June 2009.

The Newton-Evans survey of protection and control officials included more than 20 detailed product functionality and related technical questions, incorporating more than 300 items of information obtained from each of the participating utilities.

The mid-2009 Protection and Control study has been published by Newton-Evans Research Company in a series of four reports. These reports are geared to the planning needs of protective relay suppliers, power industry consultants, and utility protection and control departments. These volumes include the North American Market Study, the International Market Study, Supplier Profiles, and Global Market Assessment and Outlook.

Further information on the research series The World Market for Protective Relays in Electric Utilities: 2009-2011 is available from Newton-Evans Research Company, 10176 Baltimore National Pike, Suite 204, Ellicott City, Maryland 21042. Phone: 410-465-7316 or visit www.newton-evans.com for additional information. Send email to info@newton-evans.com

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Volume One of 2009-2011 World Study of Protective Relay Use and Plans Just Released

The Newton-Evans Research Company has published Volume One of its newest study of protective relaying usage patterns and technology trends in the world’s electric utilities.  Volume One provides detailed information on the North American market.  The 165 page report features several topical discussions and survey analysis of IEC 61850, substation cyber security, demand levels for several types of protective relays, vendor assessments and plans for future use.  Volume Two, based on survey research with international utilities, will be published by 15 June 2009.  Please contact Newton-Evans for a descriptive brochure on this report series.

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A Good Day in D.C. – The 2009 Annual Energy Conference

For two days (April 7 and 8) this week, The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration held sway at the Washington DC Convention Center. This year’s 2009 Annual Energy Conference included ten panel sessions on various current energy hot topics. These sessions began following an early morning plenary session with a keynote address given by Dr. Steven Chu, the newly appointed Secretary of Energy for the United States. Several hundred people filled the meeting room to capacity to hear Dr. Chu. The next speaker, Yale University Professor William Nordhaus, discussed energy and the macro economy and then EXELON’s Chairman and CEO, Mr. John Rowe spoke on energy in a carbon-constrained world.

The first day session of most interest to me was the session entitled: Electric Power Infrastructure: Status and Challenges for the Future. The EIA’s Scott Sitzer moderated a lively and informative panel comprised of the FERC’s P. Kumar Agarwal, Dr. Tim Brennan from UMBC, and NERC’s Mark Lauby. The three panel members came at the infrastructure issues from different backgrounds, perspectives and approaches, but each hit home on at least a few of the key electric power issues confronting the nation, and indeed, the entire world.

Continue reading A Good Day in D.C. – The 2009 Annual Energy Conference

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Leveraging SCADA for the Smart Grid

An article by Chuck Newton titled Better Leverage SCADA: Systems Expand to Support New Challenges and Needs was featured in the first issue of Energy Central’s newest serial, Intelligent Utility magazine. This new publication focuses on Smart Grid topics. From the website:

“The magazine addresses core smart grid components, including distribution automation, substation automation, smart meters, demand response, home area networks, intelligent consumer devices, distributed generation, SCADA, GIS, outage management systems, mobile workforce technologies, work management and asset management.”

Visit their website to get a free subscription.

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Protective Relay Marketplace – Our 7th Worldwide Study Now Underway

Newton Evans Research Company is embarking upon its 7th worldwide study of the protective relay marketplace. The 2009 survey has been co-designed by Newton-Evans’ staff, major electric utilities and leading suppliers and has been extensively reviewed and pre-tested.  Global fieldwork is now underway with participation from the world’s leading protection and control community within the electric power delivery industry expected to exceed 100 major participants.  The 4 volume report series is currently anticipated to be available in April 2009.

Please see our new brochure on this topic (.pdf) here:
relay_brochure2009.pdf

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Global CAPEX and O&M Expenditure Outlook for Electric Power Transmission and Distribution Investments: 2009-2010

This recently completed study of Electric Utility T&D budget plans for Capital Expenditures, Operations and Maintenance includes survey responses from over 100 utilities worldwide. This study looks at general reasons for or against increasing, decreasing or maintaining budget levels through 2010. This bold new report has captured 2008 year-end information from leading utilities concerning all aspects of operational planning for smart grid initiatives including control systems, substation automation, AMR/AMI, distribution automation and protection and control.  The outlook for transmission and distribution infrastructure spending is also included.

Purchase the study online by visiting our reports page to order.

Please see our news release on this topic (.pdf) here:
news_release-CAPEXstudyjan09.pdf